What your car will be worth — and the cost-per-year math that should drive buying
| Age | Value | % of new | Lost that year |
|---|
Depreciation is the biggest cost of car ownership and the least visible — no bill arrives, but the average new vehicle sheds 20% in year one and ~50% by year five. Understanding your model's curve changes every decision downstream: what to buy, when to buy it, how long to keep it, when to drop full insurance coverage, and whether the trade-in offer is theft. This calculator projects the curve by retention class and reports the number that should rule purchases: depreciation cost per year of ownership.
| Class | 5-yr retention | Typical residents |
|---|---|---|
| Strong | 60–70% | Toyota/Honda trucks & SUVs (Tacoma, 4Runner), Wrangler, Porsche 911, Corvette |
| Average | 45–55% | Mainstream sedans, crossovers, domestic trucks |
| Weak | 30–42% | Luxury sedans (7-Series, S-Class), most first-gen EVs, fleet-heavy models, anything with $15k of options |
The luxury paradox: the $85k German sedan loses more dollars in 3 years than an economy car costs new — which is precisely why 3-year-old luxury cars look like bargains (they're not: the curve keeps falling and the maintenance curve rises to meet it). EV depreciation has been weak-class due to battery-tech pace and price cuts, making used EVs the arbitrage of the moment.
Buying at 2–4 years old skips the cliff (someone else paid the 30–45%) and lands on the curve's flat: from year 4 onward, average-class depreciation runs $1,500–2,500/yr — comparable to the repair budget of an older car, with warranty often remaining (CPO). Keeping any car past year 8 drops depreciation under $1,000/yr, which is why "buy at 3, drive to 12" is the boring math-optimal answer the Payment and Lease vs Buy tools keep pointing at.
Reliability reputation, supply discipline (Toyota builds scarcity; fleet sales flood the used market), timeless demand (trucks, Wranglers, sports icons) and low redesign churn. Options rarely retain: that $8k package returns ~$2k at resale.
Curves assume ~12,000 miles/yr; each 10k above/below the expected odometer moves value roughly ∓5-8%. High-mileage highway miles hurt less than the number suggests; low-mileage grandma cars command real premiums.
Early ones, yes — battery-tech leaps and new-price cuts crushed residuals (great for used buyers). Strong-brand EVs with stable pricing are drifting toward average class. Battery-health reports now function like odometer disclosures for value.
Years 4-10 of its life: depreciation under $2k/yr, insurance falling, reliability still strong for well-maintained vehicles. The most expensive: owning years 0-3, repeatedly — the serial-new-car habit costs $3-5k/yr in pure depreciation.
A few percent: white/black/silver are liquid; rare colors polarize (faster sale OR discount). Condition and service history dwarf it — records add hundreds to a private sale.
Curves bracket reality; a VIN pull (KBB/Carvana-style) prices YOUR trim, miles and region. Use this for strategy — what to buy, when to sell — and the VIN quote for the transaction.
Yes — every figure computes locally in your browser.
Buy on the flat of the curve, sell before the maintenance curve crosses it, and judge every vehicle by depreciation-per-year rather than sticker. The cheapest car is rarely the cheapest car — it's the one that's done falling.