Will your savings be enough? Project your balance to retirement and the income it buys
| Age | Balance (nominal) | Today's dollars |
|---|
Retirement planning collapses into one honest question: what will be in the account on the day the paychecks stop, and what income can it safely produce? This calculator answers both — projecting your balance with compound growth and contributions, deflating it into today's purchasing power (the step most calculators skip), and converting it to sustainable monthly income under the 4% rule.
| Default | Why |
|---|---|
| 7% return | Long-run US diversified stock portfolio average (~10% nominal) blended with bonds; conservative for young savers, honest for balanced portfolios |
| 2.5% inflation | Between the Fed's 2% target and the long-run 3% average |
| 4% withdrawal rule | The Trinity-study standard: 4% initial withdrawal, inflation-adjusted, survived every historical 30-year US retirement in a 50/50+ stock portfolio |
For a stock-heavy portfolio over decades, yes — the S&P 500 has returned ~10% nominal (~7% real) over long periods. Bonds lower it; sequence risk means real journeys are bumpy. Run 5% as your pessimistic case; if the plan works at 5%, it's robust.
Today's dollars, always, for judging sufficiency — $2M in 30 years buys roughly what $1M does today at 2.5% inflation. This calculator shows both precisely so the big nominal number doesn't flatter you.
It remains the best-tested starting point; recent research argues 3.3–5% depending on valuations, flexibility and horizon. Treat 4% as a planning yardstick, not an autopilot — flexible spending in bad markets is what actually protects portfolios.
As a floor: estimate your benefit, subtract it from spending needs, and size the nest egg for the remainder. Most households need far less than the headline 25× number once Social Security is counted.
Traditional 401(k)/IRA withdrawals are taxed as income; Roth withdrawals aren't. If most savings are pre-tax, mentally haircut the income figure by your expected retirement tax rate — or model the accounts in the Roth vs Traditional tool.
In order: capture all employer match, raise your rate 1% every raise, use catch-up contributions at 50+ ($7,500 extra for 401(k)s), delay retirement 1–3 years, and let Social Security's delayed credits (8%/yr from 67 to 70) do heavy lifting.
Yes — every figure computes locally in your browser.
The plan is three numbers: today's-dollars balance, the income it buys, the gap to your spending. Close the gap with rate and time — the two levers that always work — and re-run this once a year. Compounding does the rest without your attention.